TourIST - Tourism research
TourIST – Tourism In Space and Time
Statistical analysis for the identification and development of behavior patterns
The StaBLab has been cooperating with the Institute of Geography of the LMU for a long time. In the context of this cooperation, for example, the impact of terrorist events in Israel on tourist arrivals from Germany was investigated. In addition to the strength of the effect, the study focused in particular on the short and long-term effects on tourist flows.
Publications:
Bauer et al., (2022). APCtools: Descriptive and Model-based Age-Period-Cohort Analysis. Journal of Open Source Software, 7(73), 4056, doi:10.21105/joss.04056
Weigert, M., Bauer, A., Gernert, J., Karl, M., Nalmpatian, A., Küchenhoff, H., and Schmude, J. (2021). Semiparametric APC analysis of destination choice patterns: Using generalized additive models to quantify the impact of age, period, and cohort on travel distances. Tourism Economics. doi:10.1177/1354816620987198.
M. Karl, G. Winder, A. Bauer. Terrorism and tourism in Israel: Analysis of the temporal scale. Tourism Economics, 23 (6): 1343-1352, 2017.
Our intradisciplinary research project TourIST, which was conceived in cooperation with Prof. Dr. Jürgen Schmude and Dr. Marion Karl from the Institute of Geography of the LMU Munich, will be funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG) for three years starting in 2019.
The basic aim of the research project is to investigate touristic behavior and its changes in a spatio-temporal context and to determine influencing factors and triggers of the changes in order to be able to better estimate and predict future developments. The following central research questions will be dealt with within the framework of the project:
- Which patterns of travel behavior of German tourists are recognizable from a static perspective and from a dynamic perspective over time?
- What role do internal effects (e.g. age effects, cohort effects and period effects) play in the changes in travel behaviour of German tourists over time?
- How can changes in travel behaviour of German tourists be explained by external factors or social trends?
The data basis are nationwide representative surveys of the „Reiseanalyse“, which are conducted annually by the "Forschungsgemeinschaft Urlaub und Reisen e.V." (FUR). Data from 1995 to 2019 will be included. In addition to a well-founded analysis of the data, an interactive web portal will be set up at the end of the project to communicate the most important findings of the research project to a broad (scientific) public.