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KOALA - Coalition analysis

KOALA – Coalition analysis based on survey data

The project was developed in cooperation with Matthias Stolz (DIE ZEIT). The latest survey results published by the research institutes were prepared under the name Wahlistik for the German federal election in 2013. The focus of our considerations was not only on the survey values themselves, but also on the resulting probabilities for certain coalitions - taking into account the uncertainty of the surveys.

Under the new name KOALA - Coalition Analysis - the project has now been continued since the 2017 German federal election. In addition to an expansion of the methodological foundation - among other things, dependencies are now better taken into account in the joint consideration of the opinion polls of several research institutes - the results are graphically presented in detail and made available to the public on a separate website.

Since the 2017 elections, comparable calculations are made for further elections, e.g. the Austrian elections to the National Council in 2017 and the state elections in Bavaria in 2018.

The calculations are implemented in the statistics software R. The functions are publicly available in the R package "coalitions". Current results are published on our website and via Twitter.